'Winter is on my head, but eternal spring is in my heart'. Victor Hugo There is strong evidence to suggest that the weather is about to see the Atlantic to take control through at least the short term. All areas are likely to see windy and at times wet weather, with temperatures recovering as a result, although the effects perhaps mitigated by the strength of the breeze at times. We are not done with high pressure or winter just yet though, as although the confidence is not overly firm, from mid-month a colder regime may once again may be threatening to establish itself and it is this 'worst case' scenario that forms the basis of the following forecast. *05/02/11 - 11/02/11* The pattern will be swinging around here. This the result as you would expect of a westerly and Atlantic low pressure dominated regime; that said there is the likelihood of some intervening drier and brighter spells between but this is not expected to be protracted. Temperature will be swinging around all over the place too, beneath the cloudier and unsettled bands it'll be milder but the effects tempered by the strong and blustery wind and rain. Colder and blustery weather will pass through rather quickly on the stiff breeze as low pressure clears to the east, temporary and transient weak ridges of high pressure can't be relied upon, the emphasis squarely on it remaining unsettled. *12/02/11 - 18/02/11* An Atlantic flow looks as though it'll be the dominant feature of the pattern through this period, a strong and unsettled westerly breeze bringing a mixture of cloud, wind and rain to all areas. Temperatures will be holding up well with a small risk of frost although the effects of higher temperatures will be mitigated by the fresh to strong breeze. Some drier and brighter conditions can be anticipated between the bands of cloud and rain, although not completely dry as blustery showers will be moving through on the stiff flow. As we approach the latter stages of the forecast period higher pressure may having an effect once more, a ridge extending through across southern Britain where it may become somewhat drier and brighter, the flow maintained as a fresh westerly over the north. Southern and southwestern Britain is expected to become drier and quieter as high prerssure edges in from the south, winds falling lighter will bring an increased threat of mist and overnight frost. *19/02/11 - 25/02/11* High pressure slipping in from the south or southwest looks likely to be developing into quite a large anticyclone, which will slowly drift northeastward toward Scandinavia. Winds will initially be light and variable across most areas but a noticeable easterly breeze will be developing through the southern half of the UK, so feeling chilly here despite some sunny spells. The exact positioning of this anticipated development will be crucial in the future confidence of this pattern. There is an increased, but still largely low threat of some wintry showers developing across England and Wales as low pressure edges up from the south, although the emphasis remains on a largely dry and settled pattern for the bulk of the UK. From the English Midlands northwards it'll be mainly dry and bright with light to variable winds, mist and fog quite widespread with overnight frosts, there are however indications of changes to the south. *26/02/11 - 04/03/11* High pressure will remain a large and dominant feature to the north, lower pressure entrenched to the south the UK trapped between a strengthening easterly flow, which has the potential to become increasingly wintry over England and Wales. It'll be feeling colder everywhere and there'll be a good deal of cloud across southern Britain with a wintry mixture of rain, sleet and possibly snow edging northwards into central areas, further north increasingly cloudy and colder but largely dry save for a scattering of showers across northeastern areas. Low pressure to the south is expected to slip away southeastward into the near continent, a chilly northeast to northerly flow covering the UK for a time as higher pressure to the west extends through the UK, showers becoming confined to eastern and northern Britain, with western areas drier and bighter, *05/03/11 - 09/03/11* High pressure will be drifting slowly eastward across the UK so a drier and brighter but still chilly few days is anticipated, showers becoming more scattered with an increased risk of mist or patchy overnight fog. Western areas are likely to see increasing cloud and patchy rain later with a strengthening southerly breeze as low pressure approaches from the west, the eastward progress of this unsettled weather is likely to be erratic and possibly will stall over western Wales. Simon & Captain Bob Email me at simon.keeling@weatheronline.co.uk
Source: http://feeds.weatheronline.co.uk/~r/weatheronline/~3/kYfcvuJjr-s/reports
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