*December* There appears to be some indication of lower pressure to the north or northeast, higher pressure vales to the west or southwest, this suggests a rather chilly run of northwest to northerly air to begin the first 'meteorological' month of winter. This rather chilly regime should weaken as the cold flow is cut off as pressure rises as a weak high or ridge crosses the UK, the flow behind switching to a less cold westerly. Into the middle of the month the Atlantic seems to have the controlling influence, so temperatures recovering with spells of rain for all areas and windy conditions at times. As we move away from the mid-month period there is evidence to suggest that pressure will be rising once more, so conditions should settle and temperatures falling back to become rather chilly, mist, fog and frost perhaps becoming a persistent problem. The run up to Christmas is where the forecasting becomes 'problematic' and 'interesting' as the evidence suggests that high pressure may become stubbornly entrenched to the east or northeast, Atlantic low pressure piling up as a blocked and complex feature to the west and south west, a strengthening and cold south-easterly to perhaps easterly component wind establishing. This threatening some wintry precipitation as frontal systems move into the UK, I have a 'gut' feeling that Atlantic will eventually win the battle with milder conditions flooding through over Christmas. It will however be 'extremely messy', colder weather returning as the year closes. If I ignore this feeling and 'stick rigidly' to the pattern in front of me then, the cold weather persists and it'll remain very cold and wintry through until the end of the month, low pressure moving into a very cold pool of air, over the UK with further wintry precipitation for all areas. *January* It's a cold start to 2012 with low pressure edging away to the east, a cold northerly flow covering all regions, wintry showers beginning to die away as pressure rises and an anticyclone builds through the UK, settling the weather in a cold and still pattern. High pressure persists for a time as does the settled and chilly weather, this anticyclone shows signs of pulling back westward into the central Atlantic, allowing a more unsettled northwest to westerly flow to establish across all areas in the run up to mid-month, low pressure then moving into the UK, rather unsettled cold and windy, a real messy scenario with spells of rain, sleet and some wintry precipitation too almost anywhere. The middle of the month looks like seeing colder weather for all areas and with low pressure wrapped up within the pattern, this may lead to a rather wintry spell for all areas during this middle period. This rather chilly and wintry mix continue right through until the latter stages of the month, when the flow looks likely to ease as pressure rises to the southwest with milder westerly regime establishing. However this recovery in terms of both temperature and fortune may be temporary as colder air looks likely to flood back into the UK late in the month. Simon Email me at simon.keeling@weatheronline.co.uk
Source: http://feeds.weatheronline.co.uk/~r/weatheronline/~3/H_nJXvJr5eo/reports
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