Sunday, June 26, 2011

Month ahead: Valid from 18/06 to 15/07 2011 - Where is summer?, Jun 20 - 18:38

UK prospects for the period 18/06/2011 - 22/07/2011 Real summer seems as elusive as ever, the patterns under consideration are through the short and even medium term giving on firm indications of any respite in the rather unsettled weather. Atlantic, low pressure systems appear to be no respecter of the calendar, the immediate outlook appears to be indicating that all areas will be susceptible to showers or longer spells of rain, these rather unsettled periods being accompanied by rather fresh conditions as brisk winds at times. This being 'summer' as one would expect, it will be feeling rather warm in any lengthy sunnier and drier interludes between systems, but these are expected to be transitory in nature. As we approach the turn of the month, there is some hope that summer will manifest itself as high pressure builds, but this may be grasping at straws as the anticyclone may be too far west to be long lasting, low pressure soon bringing an all too late return of rather unsettled weather as low pressure stalls over the UK, heavy thundery showers affecting all areas. Even into the middle of July, high pressures seems to be quite happy to take up its quite comfortable middle or North Atlantic station, the outlooks therefore unhappily still points the finger toward generally cool and showery conditions. *18/06/2011 -24/06/11* Showers of longer spells of rain appear to be the characteristic pattern of weather for much of the immediate outlook, some of these heavy, thundery and blustery, soon passing through to bring some warm feeling sunshine between. Drier spells can be expected as transitory rises in pressure move across the UK, although further unsettled conditions are likely to never be too far away. The Atlantic seems to have the upper hand at the moment with systems, quite active at times, bringing rather wet and windy weather to all areas there is at last some sign that these will be dying away for a while as pressure rises, I have my doubts though whether this will be long lasting, so make the most of it! *24/06/2011 - 02/07/2011* High pressure should be building here so showers should be dying away and with lengthier sunnier spells and lighter winds it will be feeling much warmer and akin to summer at last. High pressure may be transitory though and after an initial quite pleasant few days, where locally it may be quite warm unsettled weather will be approaching from off the Atlantic. *03/07/2011 - 10/07/2011* Don't blink because that may have been summer for the time being? High pressure and its associated pleasant conditions look as though they'll be shunted out the way by a developing westerly breeze, the Atlantic once more becoming quite an influence. It'll be feeling cooler and fresher everywhere as showers begin to feed in on the breeze, these most concentrated across the west and northwest, drier and brighter to the south and east. Low pressure approaching from the west, which may be quite active looks set to advance into western Britain, the slow down and stall as it begins to lose momentum, to sit atop the UK, showers becoming widespread and potentially heavy for a time, before gradually declining and becoming more scattered. This drier slot may be temporary though as one stagnating low pressure systems moves away, this improvement too may be displaced by yet another approaching and eventually slowing low, a continued threat thereafter of showers or longer spells of rain and intermittent drier and brighter slots. *10/07/2011 - 17/07/2011* The flow looks as if it'll become mainly westerly in nature, with low pressure somewhat further to the northwest, showers still affecting the stand northwest, a tendency for drier weather to the south and east where they'll be a greater anticyclonic influence. Feeling somewhat warmer areas across southern Britain but noticeably cooler for the north and northwest in the showery conditions. *18/07/2011 - 22/07/2011* At long last there is the sign that high pressure will be building across the UK, the westerly flow weakening and the showery activity dying away through the period, lengthening sunny spells and as the high drifts slowly eastward a developing southerly will feed much warmer continental air into all areas. Simon & Captain Bob Email me at simon.keeling@weatheronline.co.uk


Source: http://feeds.weatheronline.co.uk/~r/weatheronline/~3/2TmHo-iTfw0/reports

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